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T
US10Y
10-Year Treasury Yield
Macro Market Closed
-0.80%
Tracking via IEF Updated 3 hours ago
Live data may be delayed (last refreshed 195.10617708333 min ago).
AI ANALYST BRIEF
Lean Bearish

Treasury Yields Tumble as Bond Proxy Breaks Range to Downside

The 10-Year Treasury Yield proxy slid 0.79% to 93.52, extending a 0.87% weekly decline and trading 1.36% below its 50-day moving average. RSI at 15.1 signals deeply oversold conditions, yet a confirmed range_breakout_down pattern (70% confidence) and bearish volume divergence reinforce downside momentum. ATR of 0.2458 against 3.29% realized vol points to controlled but persistent selling pressure.

Strong positive correlations with global equities — DAX (0.71), FTSE (0.69), CAC (0.69) and ASX (0.68) — suggest the yield decline is moving in tandem with a broader risk-asset rotation, consistent with growth-and-inflation repricing rather than pure flight-to-quality. The 0.60 link to the Nikkei reinforces the synchronized macro tone. Sentiment readings tilt mildly bullish (0.43) but on thin coverage, limiting signal weight.

Immediate support sits near 93.30 with deeper risk toward 92.80 should the breakout extend; reclaiming 94.20 would neutralize the bearish setup, and a move back above the 50-DMA near 94.80 is needed to flip bias. With no scheduled catalyst on the radar, focus shifts to upcoming Treasury auctions and Fed commentary for the next directional cue.

Price · Candlestick

Key Levels

Resistance · current · support
93.75 24h high 55%
94.04 Fib 78.6% 50%
94.45 Fib 61.8% 50%
94.56 Prev week high 70%
93.51 Current price ·
93.49 Prev month low 85%
93.00 Round figure 40%

Pattern Read

Rule-based · last 60 sessions
20-day range breakdown 70% confidence
Price has broken below its prior 20-day low — momentum continuation to the downside.
Volume divergence 66% confidence
Down sessions are trading on heavier volume than up sessions — distribution signal.

Correlations Today

30-day window · top 5 by strength
GER40
+0.71
UK100
+0.69
FRA40
+0.69
AUS200
+0.68
JP225
+0.60

Statistical Snapshot

RSI (14d)
15.30
Oversold territory
ATR (14d)
0.25
Average true range (14d)
Realized vol (20d)
3.29%
Below average
50-day MA dist
-1.34%
Trading below 50-day MA
Weekly change
-0.84%
Change over last 5 sessions
Monthly change
-1.53%
Change over last 20 sessions

Catalysts · Next 7 Days

High + medium impact events
HIGH Tue · 12:30 UTC (0h)
US PPI
Producer-level inflation data influences rate expectations; a hotter print would elevate pressure on the Fed and steepen the yield curve.

Smart Suggestions

From cross-asset correlations
GER40 corr +0.71
Strong directional link with US10Y (r=+0.71) — confirms macro thesis across the pair.
24h High
93.75
24h Low
93.49
24h Change
-0.80%
24h Volume
$1.17B
Quote Details Last update: 2026-05-15T23:16:43+00:00
Bid
93.51
Ask
93.51
Spread
0.0094
Trades 24h
24h Open
93.73
Volume (base)
12.49M@elseif($v >= 1e3)12,494.6K@else12,494,602.00
Mid
93.51
Provider Symbol
IEF
Spread shown is an indicative inter-bank reference — actual broker spreads vary by venue and account type.
Instrument Specs
SymbolUS10Y
Base / Quote /
Contract Size1 unit
Tick Size0.01
Pip Value (USD)$1.0000
Trading Hours 14:30 – 21:00 UTC · Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Sentiment · 24h via Fiper Terminal
US10Y +0.401 · 3 articles
Sentiment derived from news articles over the last 24 hours.
News · US10Y 0 articles · last 7 days
No news coverage for TNX in the last 7 days.